Mark Rayfield — CEO, Saint-Gobain North America (4 trade ideas)

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Date Ticker Direction Thesis Source
Feb 10, 2026 LONG The company is aggressively expanding in North America (plants in Montreal, Florida, Georgia) because the region is "underbuilt." There is a structural shortage of 4 million homes. Whether the market is fluid (people moving) or frozen (people locked into 3% mortgages), demand for materials persists. If people move, they renovate the new house; if they stay, they renovate their existing home to add office space/bedrooms. 50% of the company's business is renovation/remodeling. Current build rate is 1.3 million homes, which is better than 2019 but still lagging behind the 4 million needed. Labor shortages in construction and manufacturing; potential for "overshooting" the cycle in specific sub-sectors. CNBC
Property Play: Saint-Gobain North America's c...
Feb 10, 2026 LONG Data centers are a growing component of the commercial segment (approx. 35% of commercial business). Beyond just chips and servers, data centers require massive physical infrastructure: fast-curing foundations, advanced waterproofing to protect assets, and thermal insulation for cooling. Local manufacturing is critical here because these projects demand speed—they cannot wait for imports. Saint-Gobain has 140 manufacturing sites to supply these centers quickly. The sector tends to follow a "sine wave" pattern where builders overshoot demand (similar to multi-family recently), leading to a correction, though the CEO is not currently worried. CNBC
Property Play: Saint-Gobain North America's c...
Feb 10, 2026 LONG There is a distinct split in the office market. "A buildings are always full and the C buildings aren't." To compete, landlords must renovate Class B/C buildings into Class A environments. This isn't just about coffee machines; it requires upgrading "building science" elements like acoustics (sound-dampening walls/ceilings) and electrochromatic glass (natural light without glare/heat) to improve worker productivity and comfort. Data suggests better acoustics lead to less stress and absenteeism in schools and offices, driving demand for high-performance materials. Owners "flipping" buildings may cut corners on long-term quality upgrades. CNBC
Property Play: Saint-Gobain North America's c...
Feb 10, 2026 LONG There is a shift from just "sustainability" (low carbon) to "resilience" (weatherproofing against climate change). As weather events become more extreme, the market values homes that can survive hurricanes, hail, and floods without needing repair. This drives demand for specialized, durable materials (e.g., specific siding, waterproofing systems) rather than generic commodities. 40% of greenhouse gas emissions come from the built environment, driving regulatory and consumer pressure for better materials. Political headwinds or a pullback in green mandates, though "resilience" remains in demand regardless of politics. CNBC
Property Play: Saint-Gobain North America's c...